MIADolphins
2-2
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
11 mph
20
GBPackers
3-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
57°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
7
3
3
7
3
23
Packers
10
0
0
10
0
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
359
Total Plays
78
59
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.10
Rushing Yards
150
76
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
-2.44
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-8.19
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
30
45
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-7.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
7
28
Fumbles / Game
11
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U