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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ packers week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-6
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
10 mph
30
GBPackers
8-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
8
6
17
Packers
14
10
3
3
30

Spread

GB logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
377
388
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
5.6
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.38
Passing Yards
338
--
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.45
Rushing Yards
39
114
Rush Attempts
14
25
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.97
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-8.39
--
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
44
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-5.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-38.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+32.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+32.3
Value
Ptile
12/31
-1.8
38
01/07
-2.0
34
01/13
0.5
52
09/08
1.3
58
09/12
-5.2
15
10/27
3.0
69
11/03
6.4
86
11/11
-3.3
26
11/17
7.0
89
11/24
8.1
93
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
4.0
75
11/24
-0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Dolphins logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
31
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Packers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8

EPA

EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
8
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-21
L
L
U
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-1
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
8
W
W
U
11/17
15
W
W
O
11/24
19
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U
11/24
28
W
W
O