MIADolphins
5-6
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
10 mph
30
GBPackers
8-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
8
6
17
Packers
14
10
3
3
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
388
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
5.6
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.38
Passing Yards
338
--
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.45
Rushing Yards
39
114
Rush Attempts
14
25
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.97
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-8.39
--
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
44
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+32.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.3
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
8
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U