MIADolphins
4-4
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
49°F
6 mph
45
CARPanthers
6-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
49°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21
Panthers
3
14
21
7
45
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
548
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
5.8
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.41
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.56
Rushing Yards
100
294
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
5.9
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
57
37
Penalty EPA
-9.56
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-25.8
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U