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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ panthers week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-4
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
49°F
6 mph
45
CARPanthers
6-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
49°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21
Panthers
3
14
21
7
45

Spread

CAR logo
-8

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
313
548
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
5.8
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.41
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.56
Rushing Yards
100
294
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
5.9
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
57
37
Penalty EPA
-9.56
-5.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-25.8
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
10/31
3.0
73
11/13
-9.5
3
11/20
-4.4
17
09/17
1.2
61
09/24
-3.9
25
10/01
-7.2
12
10/08
-7.5
10
10/15
-1.8
40
10/22
-2.1
38
11/05
8.8
95
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
01/01
-8.0
5
09/10
-1.6
41
09/17
-4.3
23
09/24
-9.6
4
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3

EPA

EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
15
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-18
L
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-20
L
L
U
10/08
6
W
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
U
10/22
3
W
P
O
10/26
-40
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-1
L
W
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
6
W
L
U
09/24
-21
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U