MIADolphins
4-5
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
2 mph
17
CARPanthers
4-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
14
0
10
24
Panthers
3
0
0
14
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
385
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
201
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
19/42(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.17
Rushing Yards
154
184
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.82
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-5.70
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-3.39
+0.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-27.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-27.3
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U