nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 1, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
-
11
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
8 mph
21
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
8
11
Patriots
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
271
357
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
182
140
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.18
Rushing Yards
89
217
Rush Attempts
28
42
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
18
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-5.75
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.38
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.62
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model74.0%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
181.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
11/10
-3.6
27
11/17
-1.5
43
11/24
-2.0
39
12/01
4.3
80
12/08
-1.4
44
12/15
0.6
56
12/22
5.3
84
12/29
8.1
93
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
10/28
10.3
97
11/04
2.1
63
11/08
-2.0
33
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26

EPA

EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
24
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
11/10
4
W
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U