MIADolphins
-
11
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
8 mph
21
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
8
11
Patriots
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
357
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
182
140
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.18
Rushing Yards
89
217
Rush Attempts
28
42
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
18
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-5.75
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.38
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.62
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
190.7
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U