MIADolphins
-
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
15 mph
16
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
7
0
17
Patriots
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
393
Total Plays
52
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.00
Passing Yards
185
268
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.18
Rushing Yards
74
125
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.60
-9.87
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-2.83
-1.87
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
28
84
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model60.6%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+40.3
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
-20.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
+45.4
Final Difference
74.7
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U