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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-0
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
6 mph
38
NEPatriots
1-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
3
21
7
7
38

Spread

NE logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
172
449
Total Plays
45
75
Yards / Play
3.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.19
Passing Yards
116
--
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.34
Rushing Yards
56
175
Rush Attempts
18
40
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.72
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.51
-7.12
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.39
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
89
57
Penalty EPA
-11.79
-5.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Value
Ptile
10/23
1.3
59
11/06
-2.5
30
11/13
3.9
78
11/20
-2.0
34
11/27
5.6
85
12/04
-4.3
18
12/11
3.1
73
09/09
-0.8
41
09/16
0.9
52
09/23
7.7
92
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
12/11
-5.6
17
12/17
0.1
52
12/24
1.6
65
12/31
-2.8
34
01/13
9.1
96
01/21
3.3
77
02/04
11.3
99
09/09
2.4
66
09/16
3.4
72
09/23
-5.8
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
27
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
10
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-10
L
L
O
11/26
-18
L
L
O
12/03
26
W
W
O
12/11
7
W
W
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-7
L
L
U
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
21
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
U
01/13
21
W
W
O
01/21
4
W
L
U
02/04
-8
L
L
O
09/09
7
W
W
U
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
U