MIADolphins
3-0
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
6 mph
38
NEPatriots
1-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
3
21
7
7
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
172
449
Total Plays
45
75
Yards / Play
3.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.19
Passing Yards
116
--
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.34
Rushing Yards
56
175
Rush Attempts
18
40
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.72
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.51
-7.12
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.39
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
89
57
Penalty EPA
-11.79
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U