MIADolphins
3-3
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
13 mph
27
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
10
0
0
17
Patriots
0
3
17
7
27
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
252
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
3.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
145
100
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.39
Rushing Yards
156
152
Rush Attempts
31
37
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
47%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
-4.63
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-47
-16
Sack EPA
-10.57
-5.51
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
61
35
Penalty EPA
-5.71
-2.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.4
Home QB Adjustment
-33.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-33.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
28
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U