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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-4
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
8 mph
27
NEPatriots
5-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
7
0
17
Patriots
7
9
8
3
27

Spread

MIA logo
+11

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
334
434
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
4.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.29
Passing Yards
201
325
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.29
Rushing Yards
133
109
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.61
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-4.29
-2.72
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-4.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.8
Home QB Adjustment
+27.2
Away QB Adjustment
-31.7
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-31.7
Value
Ptile
10/04
-5.7
16
10/12
7.2
90
10/25
-5.7
16
11/01
-6.1
14
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.2
Value
Ptile
01/20
-1.9
36
02/03
-0.5
46
09/07
-2.1
35
09/14
9.4
95
09/20
-3.4
28
09/27
3.3
72
10/04
4.3
78
10/11
3.1
70
10/18
15.2
100
10/25
5.3
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
11
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-2-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
09/13
-12
L
L
U
09/21
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-10
L
L
U
10/04
28
W
W
O
10/12
4
W
W
O
10/25
-12
L
L
O
11/01
5
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
23
W
W
P
12/21
40
W
W
P
12/28
13
W
W
P
09/14
1
W
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U
09/27
16
W
W
U
10/04
6
W
W
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
59
W
W
O
10/25
28
W
W
U