MIADolphins
3-4
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
8 mph
27
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
7
0
17
Patriots
7
9
8
3
27
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
434
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
4.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.29
Passing Yards
201
325
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.29
Rushing Yards
133
109
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.61
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-4.29
-2.72
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-4.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.8
Home QB Adjustment
+27.2
Away QB Adjustment
-31.7
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-31.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
11
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-2-3
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-4-3
O/U