MIADolphins
7-6
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
9 mph
41
NEPatriots
10-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
0
0
13
Patriots
1
7
24
3
35
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
395
Total Plays
74
64
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.16
Passing Yards
308
--
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.22
Rushing Yards
76
108
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
19%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.41
-4.92
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-8.19
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
51
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-2.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
+19.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
10
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U