MIADolphins
5-9
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
7 mph
27
NEPatriots
11-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
14
0
7
24
Patriots
0
0
17
10
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
400
Total Plays
65
81
Yards / Play
5.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
253
281
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.04
Rushing Yards
121
119
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.94
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-28
-23
Sack EPA
-6.73
-5.51
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
39
50
Penalty EPA
-3.47
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,720
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
-13.1
Final Difference
234.3
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
3
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U