MIADolphins
7-8
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
5 mph
38
NEPatriots
13-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
14
4
14
0
32
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
502
Total Plays
58
74
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.17
Passing Yards
206
--
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.75
Rushing Yards
44
181
Rush Attempts
16
45
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.50
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.10
-4.66
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-7.20
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
72
Penalty EPA
-8.19
-6.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model75.1%
Spread Pick
Patriots-4.5
Expected Value
+22.9%
Cover Probability
64.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+39.2
Final Difference
191.6
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
2
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U