MIA logo
MIA
7-8
7
38
NE
13-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
14
4
14
0
32

Spread

NE logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
250
502
Total Plays
58
74
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.17
Passing Yards
206
--
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.75
Rushing Yards
44
181
Rush Attempts
16
45
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.50
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.10
-4.66
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-7.20
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
72
Penalty EPA
-8.19
-6.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,662
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+39.0
Final Difference
190.4
Model Spread
-7.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
2
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
9
2