nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-8
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
15 mph
28
NEPatriots
11-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
7
14
0
7
28

Spread

NE logo
-11.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
256
443
Total Plays
57
75
Yards / Play
4.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.18
Passing Yards
209
276
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.31
Rushing Yards
47
167
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.38
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-9.48
-1.85
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
23
48
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-5.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.1
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
10/14
2.5
65
10/28
-5.8
13
11/04
0.3
52
11/11
-8.2
5
11/15
-9.0
4
11/25
4.3
77
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42
12/16
6.9
89
12/23
0.1
50
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
10/14
5.2
83
10/21
4.8
81
10/28
9.8
96
11/11
1.8
61
11/18
8.8
94
11/22
11.4
98
12/02
-4.6
20
12/10
9.1
94
12/16
2.9
69
12/23
-3.8
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
19
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
3
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
1
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/28
21
W
W
O
11/04
-3
L
L
U
11/11
-34
L
L
U
11/15
-5
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
21
W
W
U
12/23
14
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-1
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
38
W
W
O
11/11
6
W
L
O
11/18
35
W
W
O
11/22
30
W
W
O
12/02
7
W
P
U
12/10
28
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
7
W
L
U