MIADolphins
7-8
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
15 mph
28
NEPatriots
11-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
443
Total Plays
57
75
Yards / Play
4.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.18
Passing Yards
209
276
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.31
Rushing Yards
47
167
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.38
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-9.48
-1.85
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
23
48
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.1
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
1
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U