MIADolphins
4-11
27
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
2 mph
24
NEPatriots
12-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
1
7
10
21
Patriots
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
+17
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
352
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
326
217
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.01
Rushing Yards
63
135
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
19
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.11
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-4.41
-1.12
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
54
Penalty EPA
-4.87
-4.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+409
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,260
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.2
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+27.4
Market Regression
+25.9
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
26
1
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
28
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U