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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 17, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
8-7
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
2 mph
23
NEPatriots
7-8
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21
Patriots
7
0
3
7
17

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
333
249
Total Plays
69
57
Yards / Play
4.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
247
173
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.10
Rushing Yards
86
76
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.50
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-2.80
-7.94
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
39
Penalty EPA
-9.33
-6.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+37.5
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-44.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-44.5
Value
Ptile
10/17
-2.0
38
10/21
-2.1
37
10/31
-3.8
25
11/07
-0.7
48
11/14
-3.0
32
11/28
-0.1
53
12/05
-4.4
22
12/12
-0.4
50
12/19
-7.3
10
10/09
-7.7
7
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Value
Ptile
09/25
-2.4
33
10/24
-6.4
12
10/30
-6.1
13
11/06
-4.7
20
11/20
-2.7
30
11/24
5.2
85
12/01
0.7
57
12/12
-4.1
23
12/18
-7.9
7
12/24
-0.4
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
24
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
32
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-8
L
L
U
10/23
6
W
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/27
15
W
W
U
12/04
-16
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
23
W
W
O
10/24
-19
L
L
O
10/30
5
W
W
U
11/06
23
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-14
L
L
U
12/12
14
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
-4
L
L
U