MIADolphins
8-7
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
2 mph
23
NEPatriots
7-8
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21
Patriots
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
249
Total Plays
69
57
Yards / Play
4.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
247
173
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.10
Rushing Yards
86
76
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.50
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-2.80
-7.94
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
39
Penalty EPA
-9.33
-6.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+37.5
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-44.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-44.5
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
24
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U