MIADolphins
5-5
33
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
10 mph
17
OAKRaiders
5-5
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
3
10
10
33
Raiders
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
471
263
Total Plays
82
45
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.23
Passing Yards
285
247
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.14
Rushing Yards
186
16
Rush Attempts
49
12
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.83
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-12.84
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-5
Sack EPA
-5.68
-0.81
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
20
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-3.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-40.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+40.9
Final Difference
-20.1
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
B. Gradkowski
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
18
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U