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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ rams week 10, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-6
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
15
LARRams
4-4
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
7
6
23
Rams
0
6
0
9
15

Spread

MIA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
238
327
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.25
Passing Yards
171
257
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.15
Rushing Yards
67
70
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.60
-9.40
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-36
-36
Sack EPA
-8.28
-8.45
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
+1.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+79.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+22.6
Net QB Adjustment
-28.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Value
Ptile
12/11
-3.2
28
12/17
3.5
73
12/24
4.4
77
12/31
-1.8
38
01/07
-2.0
34
01/13
0.5
52
09/08
1.3
58
09/12
-5.2
15
10/27
3.0
69
11/03
6.4
86
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
12/31
-3.0
29
01/14
4.8
80
09/08
0.9
54
09/15
-5.6
13
09/22
-1.3
39
09/29
-3.5
25
10/06
-2.1
33
10/20
-6.2
11
10/24
6.8
88
11/03
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Rams Defense
Dolphins logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Rams Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Rams logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
27
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
25
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-7
L
L
U
01/13
-19
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
L
U
09/12
-21
L
L
U
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-1
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
1
W
W
O
01/14
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-31
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/20
5
W
L
U
10/24
10
W
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
U