MIADolphins
2-6
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
015
LARRams
4-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
7
6
23
Rams
0
6
0
9
15
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
327
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.25
Passing Yards
171
257
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.15
Rushing Yards
67
70
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.60
-9.40
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-36
-36
Sack EPA
-8.28
-8.45
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
+1.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+42.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+22.6
Net QB Adjustment
-28.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Rams Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
27
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U