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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ ravens week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-4
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
38
BALRavens
6-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
6
6
Ravens
14
10
0
14
38

Spread

BAL logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
277
496
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
4.7
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.17
Passing Yards
215
--
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
37/50(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
62
110
Rush Attempts
16
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.51
-10.70
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.70
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
57
68
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-6.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
09/18
7.9
92
09/25
2.5
68
09/29
-6.7
9
10/09
-10.8
2
10/16
2.6
69
10/23
1.3
59
11/06
-2.5
30
11/13
3.9
78
11/20
-2.0
34
11/27
5.6
85
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
09/18
-0.2
46
09/25
-2.2
33
10/02
3.1
73
10/09
-1.3
38
10/16
-2.5
29
10/23
-6.9
8
11/06
-3.4
24
11/10
1.8
63
11/20
1.6
61
11/27
0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5

EPA

EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
19
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
15
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
19
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
6
W
L
O
09/29
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-13
L
L
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
11/06
4
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
P
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
5
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-6
L
L
U
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/10
21
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
L
U
11/27
5
W
W
U