MIADolphins
7-4
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
38
BALRavens
6-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
6
6
Ravens
14
10
0
14
38
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
496
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
4.7
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.17
Passing Yards
215
--
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
37/50(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
62
110
Rush Attempts
16
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.51
-10.70
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.70
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
57
68
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-6.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31
EPA
EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
15
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U