MIADolphins
3-0
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
038
NOSaints
3-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
7
17
Saints
7
14
14
3
38
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
465
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
5.7
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
216
397
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.63
Rushing Yards
115
68
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.05
-3.13
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-16
Sack EPA
-6.02
-3.81
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-3.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
20
28
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U