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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ saints week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-0
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
38
NOSaints
3-0
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
7
17
Saints
7
14
14
3
38

Spread

NO logo
-7

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
331
465
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
5.7
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
216
397
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.63
Rushing Yards
115
68
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.05
-3.13
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-16
Sack EPA
-6.02
-3.81
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-3.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
11/15
-9.0
4
11/25
4.3
77
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42
12/16
6.9
89
12/23
0.1
50
12/30
-9.1
4
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
11/18
5.5
84
11/25
-1.5
39
11/29
-7.8
7
12/09
0.2
51
12/16
7.9
92
12/23
13.0
99
12/30
8.4
93
09/08
4.5
81
09/15
-5.1
19
09/22
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Dolphins logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
20
28
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Saints logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24

EPA

EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
15
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
12
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-5
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
21
W
W
U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
21
W
W
U
11/25
-10
L
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-25
L
L
O
12/16
41
W
W
U
12/23
3
W
W
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/22
24
W
W
U