MIADolphins
0-6
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
2 mph
27
PITSteelers
2-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
14
0
0
0
14
Steelers
0
10
7
10
27
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
394
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
4.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.01
Passing Yards
170
236
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.10
Rushing Yards
60
158
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.30
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.98
-3.95
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-10.33
-3.45
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
70
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+320
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,235
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-129.3
Home QB Adjustment
-107.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-107.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
32
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
32
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U