MIADolphins
6-6
34
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph
28
PITSteelers
5-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
14
10
34
Steelers
7
0
8
7
22
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
412
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
6.1
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.06
Passing Yards
186
328
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.11
Rushing Yards
181
84
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.47
-4.39
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-21
Sack EPA
-3.83
-7.17
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
36
63
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
21
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U