MIADolphins
6-7
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
8-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
6
0
12
Texans
3
10
7
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
181
Total Plays
62
50
Yards / Play
3.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.15
Passing Yards
172
104
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.26
Rushing Yards
52
77
Rush Attempts
19
20
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-18.24
-5.12
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-24
-27
Sack EPA
-8.12
-7.60
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
64
70
Penalty EPA
-12.27
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-66.3
Home QB Adjustment
-21.6
Away QB Adjustment
+44.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+44.7
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
12
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
26
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U