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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ vikings week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-0
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
10
MINVikings
0-1
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
1
0
8
Vikings
0
0
7
3
10

Spread

MIA logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
226
364
Total Plays
46
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.23
Passing Yards
106
208
Comp/Att
9/15(60%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.40
Rushing Yards
120
156
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.61
-14.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-3.17
-9.30
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
44
Penalty EPA
-1.29
-6.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
11/08
-1.2
42
11/15
-1.2
42
11/19
1.2
57
11/29
-5.2
19
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
09/12
-2.3
33
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
11/22
7.4
90
11/29
10.2
97
12/06
0.3
53
12/13
-1.5
40
12/20
-4.0
24
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9

EPA

EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
15
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
14
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
30
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/29
-17
L
L
O
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-7
L
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
5
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
26
W
W
U
11/29
26
W
W
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/13
20
W
W
U
12/20
-19
L
L
U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U