MIADolphins
1-0
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
010
MINVikings
0-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
1
0
8
Vikings
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
364
Total Plays
46
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.23
Passing Yards
106
208
Comp/Att
9/15(60%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.40
Rushing Yards
120
156
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.61
-14.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-3.17
-9.30
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
44
Penalty EPA
-1.29
-6.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
15
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U