MIADolphins
7-6
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
041
MINVikings
6-6
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
4
7
0
11
Vikings
21
0
3
17
41
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
418
Total Plays
53
63
Yards / Play
3.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.54
-0.00
Passing Yards
37
198
Comp/Att
11/24(46%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
9.4
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.08
Rushing Yards
156
220
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
7.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.17
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-71
-17
Sack EPA
-18.97
-3.35
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-4.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
6
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U