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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ vikings week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-6
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
41
MINVikings
6-6
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
4
7
0
11
Vikings
21
0
3
17
41

Spread

MIN logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
193
418
Total Plays
53
63
Yards / Play
3.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.54
-0.00
Passing Yards
37
198
Comp/Att
11/24(46%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
9.4
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.08
Rushing Yards
156
220
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
7.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.17
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-71
-17
Sack EPA
-18.97
-3.35
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-4.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+69.0
Base HFA
+58.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
-10.6
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/04
-4.3
18
12/11
3.1
73
09/09
-0.8
41
09/16
0.9
52
09/23
7.7
92
09/30
-8.7
7
10/07
-7.1
10
11/25
2.4
66
12/02
-2.1
32
12/09
2.8
69
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
10.4
97
10/07
4.9
78
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
27
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
6
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
32
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
21
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/07
-10
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/21
-11
L
L
O
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/11
-19
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-7
L
W
O
10/07
2
W
W
U
10/14
10
W
P
O
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U