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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ 49ers week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-0
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
4 mph
26
SF49ers
1-2
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
1
2
0
0
3
49ers
3
10
10
3
26

Spread

SF logo
-4

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
213
407
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.23
Passing Yards
191
189
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.21
Rushing Yards
22
218
Rush Attempts
12
42
Yards / Rush
1.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.16
-8.53
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-4
-29
Sack EPA
-2.19
-5.35
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-10.45
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
113.4
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
11/17
3.9
77
12/01
1.3
60
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
2.4
67
09/07
-1.7
38
09/15
2.7
70
09/21
9.3
95
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
12/29
5.9
86
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Eagles logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
21
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
24
28
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
49ers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
29
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
8
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U