PHIEagles
3-0
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
4 mph
26
SF49ers
1-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
1
2
0
0
3
49ers
3
10
10
3
26
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
407
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.23
Passing Yards
191
189
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.21
Rushing Yards
22
218
Rush Attempts
12
42
Yards / Rush
1.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.16
-8.53
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-4
-29
Sack EPA
-2.19
-5.35
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-10.45
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.1
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
21
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
24
28
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
29
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U