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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ 49ers week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
0-2
25
TBD
Levi's Stadium
84°F
12 mph
20
SF49ers
2-1
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
84°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
8
0
3
8
19
49ers
7
0
7
6
20

Spread

PHI logo
+8

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
269
417
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
176
301
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.21
Rushing Yards
93
116
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-17.38
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-37
Sack EPA
-4.26
-10.78
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
42
Penalty EPA
-3.78
-6.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.2%
Cover Probability
57.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-42.5
Home QB Adjustment
-53.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+50.0
Final Difference
157.2
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
11/24
-1.6
42
12/01
0.7
58
12/09
2.1
67
12/15
5.0
83
12/22
6.1
87
12/29
0.4
55
01/05
-9.0
6
09/13
-9.9
3
09/20
-0.8
38
09/27
0.0
46
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-53.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Eagles logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
17
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
14
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
25
RZ Efficiency
13
9
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
49ers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
22
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
7
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-8
L
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
L
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
8
W
W
U
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-8
L
L
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
0
T
L
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
P
01/11
17
W
W
U
01/19
17
W
W
O
02/02
-11
L
L
U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O