PHIEagles
2-2
27
TBD
Candlestick Park
71°F
10 mph
24
SF49ers
0-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
71°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
10
0
4
21
49ers
7
3
0
14
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
364
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.05
Passing Yards
227
290
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.20
Rushing Yards
125
74
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.63
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-22.77
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-19
Sack EPA
-6.89
-11.48
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
30
65
Penalty EPA
-3.54
-7.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-17.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Value
Ptile
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
1
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
12
17
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
15
9
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
4
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U