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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bears week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-0
29
TBD
Soldier Field
84°F
5 mph
14
CHIBears
0-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
84°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
6
13
7
29
Bears
0
7
0
1
8

Spread

PHI logo
+3

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
280
284
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
4.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.49
Passing Yards
180
220
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.44
Rushing Yards
100
64
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-18.28
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-2.67
-8.29
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
34
60
Penalty EPA
-4.71
-7.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+69.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
42.7
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17
12/13
1.8
64
12/20
-3.1
28
12/27
0.8
55
01/03
-5.0
15
09/11
-5.2
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Eagles logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
13
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bears logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
22
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
22
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/27
5
W
W
O
01/03
-4
L
L
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U