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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bears week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-4
24
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
5 mph
20
CHIBears
4-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
0
7
7
24
Bears
0
9
11
0
20

Spread

PHI logo
CHI logo
4
P

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
377
286
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.10
Passing Yards
220
160
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.26
Rushing Yards
157
126
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.79
-1.63
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-24
-13
Sack EPA
-6.04
-2.47
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
46
64
Penalty EPA
-6.70
-6.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-59.8
Final Difference
-75.8
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
01/04
1.8
63
01/11
0.9
58
01/18
7.5
93
09/13
1.6
60
10/11
7.4
90
10/18
-6.1
14
10/26
-2.8
32
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
-5.4
17
11/15
7.5
91
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
2.2
67
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78
10/04
1.2
57
10/18
3.0
69
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-4.3
23
11/08
4.9
81
11/12
-7.3
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Eagles logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24

EPA

EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
10
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bears logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
21
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
25
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/18
-7
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-26
L
L
O
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/11
19
W
W
O
10/18
-4
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
O
11/08
-4
L
L
U
11/15
-8
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O
10/04
24
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-35
L
L
O
11/01
24
W
W
U
11/08
-20
L
L
O
11/12
-4
L
L
U