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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bears week 15, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
12-1
25
TBD
Soldier Field
17°F
17 mph
20
CHIBears
3-10
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
17°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
7
8
25
Bears
0
6
7
7
20

Spread

CHI logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
423
248
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.18
Passing Yards
309
91
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.21
Rushing Yards
114
157
Rush Attempts
34
30
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.87
-5.48
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-6
-61
Sack EPA
-1.92
-11.62
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-1.48
-2.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-212
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+41.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+35.3
Away QB Adjustment
+38.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+38.0
Value
Ptile
10/02
-2.0
37
10/09
6.1
89
10/16
-0.7
47
10/30
5.6
88
11/03
2.1
69
11/14
2.1
69
11/20
5.0
85
11/27
9.0
95
12/04
10.8
97
12/11
6.7
91
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
Value
Ptile
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68
10/13
-3.5
25
10/24
1.5
63
10/30
5.6
87
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38
12/04
6.4
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Eagles logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
1
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bears logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
2
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
8
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/16
9
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/03
12
W
L
O
11/14
-11
L
L
O
11/20
1
W
L
U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/04
25
W
W
O
12/11
26
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O
10/13
-5
L
L
U
10/24
19
W
W
O
10/30
-20
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
W
O
11/13
-1
L
L
O
11/20
-3
L
P
O
11/27
-21
L
L
O
12/04
-9
L
L
O