PHIEagles
12-1
25
TBD
Soldier Field
17°F
17 mph
20
CHIBears
3-10
TBD
Soldier Field
17°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
7
8
25
Bears
0
6
7
7
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
248
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.18
Passing Yards
309
91
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.21
Rushing Yards
114
157
Rush Attempts
34
30
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.87
-5.48
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-6
-61
Sack EPA
-1.92
-11.62
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-1.48
-2.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-214
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+35.3
Away QB Adjustment
+38.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+38.0
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
2
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U