PHIEagles
9-7
16
TBD
Soldier Field
39°F
12 mph
15
CHIBears
12-4
TBD
Soldier Field
39°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
0
7
6
16
Bears
0
6
0
9
15
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
356
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
258
291
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.12
Rushing Yards
42
65
Rush Attempts
24
18
Yards / Rush
1.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.25
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.53
-2.33
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+36.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.1
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
24
17
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
12
22
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U