PHIEagles
5-6
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
10 mph
32
CINBengals
3-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
7
7
14
Bengals
10
9
10
3
32
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
412
Total Plays
80
64
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
306
--
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.51
Rushing Yards
53
80
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-13.59
-8.63
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.38
--
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
88
23
Penalty EPA
-11.34
+3.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Bengals-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
35.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Bengals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
5
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
7
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U