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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bengals week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-6
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
10 mph
32
CINBengals
3-7
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
7
7
14
Bengals
10
9
10
3
32

Spread

CIN logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
359
412
Total Plays
80
64
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
306
--
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.51
Rushing Yards
53
80
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-13.59
-8.63
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.38
--
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
88
23
Penalty EPA
-11.34
+3.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+78.6
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
-6.9
Final Difference
36.2
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
-2.0
34
09/25
7.7
91
10/09
0.4
53
10/16
-8.4
4
10/23
-4.1
19
10/30
-0.5
45
11/06
-4.1
19
11/13
-1.4
37
11/20
-4.7
16
11/28
-0.9
42
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
09/18
3.9
77
09/25
-2.2
33
09/29
1.8
63
10/09
3.3
74
10/16
4.3
80
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
1.8
63
11/14
-4.0
20
11/20
-2.4
30
11/27
-1.3
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bengals Defense
Eagles logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
13
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Bengals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bengals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15

EPA

EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
5
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
7
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
18
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
15
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
U
10/09
-1
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
9
W
W
U
11/20
-11
L
L
U
11/28
-14
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

2-7-1
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-8
L
L
U
09/25
-12
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
U
10/09
-14
L
L
U
10/16
-18
L
L
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
0
T
L
O
11/14
-1
L
L
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
L
U