PHIEagles
1-3
24
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
6 mph
31
BUFBills
3-1
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
10
24
Bills
7
8
10
0
25
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
489
331
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
8.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
188
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.19
Rushing Yards
174
143
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
8.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
22%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.51
-2.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.18
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
46
40
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
6
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U