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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bills week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-3
24
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
6 mph
31
BUFBills
3-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
10
24
Bills
7
8
10
0
25

Spread

BUF logo
+3

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
489
331
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
8.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
188
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.19
Rushing Yards
174
143
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
8.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
22%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.51
-2.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.18
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
46
40
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-4.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
11/28
5.0
82
12/02
7.4
91
12/12
0.5
52
12/19
12.8
99
12/28
0.8
54
01/09
3.5
72
09/11
3.4
74
09/18
4.2
77
09/25
-1.3
43
10/02
10.9
97
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
11/21
6.0
87
11/28
-2.0
36
12/05
-2.7
30
12/12
1.8
60
12/19
2.0
62
12/26
-8.4
6
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
6.7
89
09/25
3.9
76
10/02
-0.5
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Eagles logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28

EPA

EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bills logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
6
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
11
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
10
W
W
O
12/12
3
W
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/02
-1
L
W
U
01/09
-5
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
P
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
34
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
L
O
09/25
3
W
W
O
10/02
-3
L
L
O