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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bills week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
10-5
13
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
6 mph
12
BUFBills
11-4
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
6
0
0
13
Bills
0
0
0
12
12

Spread

PHI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
190
331
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.10
Passing Yards
108
211
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.26
Rushing Yards
82
120
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.50
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-2
-51
Sack EPA
-1.20
-15.24
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
36
40
Penalty EPA
-4.00
-4.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.1
59
10/19
4.8
82
10/26
1.9
64
11/10
1.1
58
11/16
-1.5
39
11/23
8.1
94
11/28
2.4
67
12/08
-9.0
3
12/14
5.7
87
12/20
2.5
68
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
10/13
-5.1
16
10/26
1.4
61
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
68
11/16
11.9
99
11/20
-7.8
5
11/30
1.7
62
12/07
10.9
98
12/14
4.1
77
12/21
-1.8
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Eagles logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
19
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bills logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
6
3
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
3
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
6
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-17
L
L
O
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-9
L
L
U
12/08
-3
L
L
U
12/14
31
W
W
U
12/20
11
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
12/14
4
W
W
O
12/21
3
W
L
O