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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ broncos week 10, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-6
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
19 mph
13
DENBroncos
5-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
10
1
3
24
Broncos
0
10
3
0
13

Spread

PHI logo
+0

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
386
308
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
6.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
170
212
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.15
Rushing Yards
216
96
Rush Attempts
39
18
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
46%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-10.17
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-2.89
-1.19
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
89
--
Penalty EPA
-7.97
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
+3.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model41.6%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
BroncosN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.1%
Cover Probability
61.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+55.9
Base HFA
+41.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.7
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
+16.4
Final Difference
59.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
01/03
-5.3
15
09/12
8.9
95
09/19
2.3
70
09/27
0.6
58
10/03
6.4
89
10/10
-0.2
52
10/14
-2.7
34
10/24
1.4
63
10/31
-1.2
44
11/07
2.4
71
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
01/03
-7.2
7
09/12
5.2
84
09/19
2.5
71
09/26
-0.5
48
10/03
-6.8
12
10/10
2.0
68
10/17
-2.0
38
10/21
-2.1
37
10/31
-3.8
25
11/07
-0.7
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Eagles logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
3
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Broncos logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
23
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
5
21
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/12
26
W
W
U
09/19
-6
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/03
-12
L
L
O
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/14
-6
L
W
U
10/24
-11
L
L
O
10/31
38
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-1
L
W
O
09/12
14
W
W
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/26
26
W
W
U
10/03
-16
L
L
U
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
10/31
7
W
W
U
11/07
14
W
W
U