PHIEagles
3-9
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
1 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
6-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
0
13
23
Buccaneers
0
0
7
14
21
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
314
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.01
Passing Yards
338
178
Comp/Att
32/52(62%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.01
Rushing Yards
29
136
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
39%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.95
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-43
-11
Sack EPA
-8.75
-1.56
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
13
64
Penalty EPA
-1.05
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+86.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-77.7
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-77.7
Value
Ptile
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
27
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
29
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
9
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U