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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ chargers week 10, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-3
23
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
71°F
8 mph
31
LACChargers
5-3
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
71°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
3
14
23
Chargers
7
7
14
3
31

Spread

LAC logo
-1

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
462
331
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
6.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.39
Passing Yards
433
212
Comp/Att
35/56(63%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.46
Rushing Yards
29
119
Rush Attempts
13
28
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.25
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-19
Sack EPA
-2.99
-4.12
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-8.76
+0.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
24.0
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Value
Ptile
12/28
4.8
83
01/04
1.8
63
01/11
0.9
58
01/18
7.5
93
09/13
1.6
60
10/11
7.4
90
10/18
-6.1
14
10/26
-2.8
32
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
-5.4
17
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
01/03
-4.9
16
01/11
4.1
78
09/14
-0.3
48
09/20
4.0
76
09/27
2.6
67
10/04
3.7
74
10/19
-0.7
46
10/25
7.0
89
11/01
0.5
54
11/08
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Chargers Defense
Eagles logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
10
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Chargers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chargers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
28
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
10
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
12
W
W
P
01/18
-7
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-26
L
L
O
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/11
19
W
W
O
10/18
-4
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
O
11/08
-4
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/11
-11
L
L
P
09/14
4
W
L
O
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-10
L
L
O
10/19
-11
L
L
O
10/25
30
W
W
P
11/01
8
W
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U