PHIEagles
5-3
23
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
71°F
8 mph
31
LACChargers
5-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
71°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
3
14
23
Chargers
7
7
14
3
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
462
331
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
6.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.39
Passing Yards
433
212
Comp/Att
35/56(63%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.46
Rushing Yards
29
119
Rush Attempts
13
28
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.25
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-19
Sack EPA
-2.99
-4.12
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-8.76
+0.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
+1.8
Final Difference
24.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Chargers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U