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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ chargers week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
8-4
19
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
22
LACChargers
8-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Eagles
3
3
3
10
0
19
Chargers
7
3
3
6
3
22

Spread

LAC logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
365
275
Total Plays
66
71
Yards / Play
5.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.18
Passing Yards
231
106
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.60
Rushing Yards
134
169
Rush Attempts
25
38
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.84
-9.01
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-9
-33
Sack EPA
-2.64
-12.51
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
53
55
Penalty EPA
-7.50
-10.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+83.8
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+23.9
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
+33.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
09/21
4.9
84
09/28
0.5
55
10/05
-1.6
38
10/09
1.1
59
10/19
4.8
82
10/26
1.9
64
11/10
1.1
58
11/16
-1.5
39
11/23
8.1
94
11/28
2.4
67
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
09/21
-3.7
25
09/28
-5.0
17
10/05
-0.5
46
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
11/16
-8.8
4
11/30
-3.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Chargers Defense
Eagles logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Chargers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chargers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
12
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
29
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
7
W
W
O
09/28
6
W
W
O
10/05
-4
L
L
U
10/09
-17
L
L
O
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-9
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O