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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ colts week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
8-1
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
16
INDColts
4-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
3
0
14
17
Colts
7
3
3
3
16

Spread

IND logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
314
284
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.24
Passing Yards
173
185
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.10
Rushing Yards
141
99
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.85
-4.82
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-28
Sack EPA
-11.03
-4.65
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
90
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-7.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-114.6
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
01/16
-3.5
27
09/11
4.1
81
09/19
9.9
96
09/25
3.9
81
10/02
-2.0
37
10/09
6.1
89
10/16
-0.7
47
10/30
5.6
88
11/03
2.1
69
11/14
2.1
69
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
-4.7
21
01/09
-3.1
31
09/11
1.2
60
09/18
-14.2
0
09/25
-1.8
39
10/02
2.4
71
10/06
-8.6
4
10/16
11.4
98
10/23
-2.8
29
11/13
4.3
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Colts Defense
Eagles logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
10
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
1
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Colts Offense vs Eagles Defense
Colts logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
30
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
19
RZ Efficiency
29
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-16
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/19
17
W
W
U
09/25
16
W
W
U
10/02
8
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/16
9
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/03
12
W
L
O
11/14
-11
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
0
T
L
U
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-9
L
L
U
10/30
-1
L
L
U
11/06
-23
L
L
U
11/13
5
W
W
O