PHIEagles
8-1
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
4-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
3
0
14
17
Colts
7
3
3
3
16
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
284
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.24
Passing Yards
173
185
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.10
Rushing Yards
141
99
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.85
-4.82
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-28
Sack EPA
-11.03
-4.65
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
90
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-7.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
Colts+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+53.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-112.8
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
10
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Colts Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
19
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U