PHIEagles
-
17
TBD
FedExField
76°F
5 mph
27
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
7
0
0
17
Commanders
0
7
7
13
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
239
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
4.0
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.15
Passing Yards
208
159
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.11
Rushing Yards
57
80
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.66
--
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-62
-19
Sack EPA
-18.78
-4.98
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-5.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-160
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
5
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U