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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 6, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-4
20
TBD
FedExField
68°F
7 mph
13
WASCommanders
3-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
68°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
13
0
0
20
Commanders
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

PHI logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
422
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.12
Passing Yards
230
245
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
17/37(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.18
Rushing Yards
192
42
Rush Attempts
38
14
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.85
-10.89
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-2.70
-2.84
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
60
75
Penalty EPA
-5.93
-10.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
-76.7
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
12/02
7.4
91
12/12
0.5
52
12/19
12.8
99
12/28
0.8
54
01/09
3.5
72
09/11
3.4
74
09/18
4.2
77
09/25
-1.3
43
10/02
10.9
97
10/09
5.7
85
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64
09/18
-0.6
47
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
-5.6
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17

EPA

EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
3
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16

EPA

EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
28
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
3
W
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/02
-1
L
W
U
01/09
-5
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
P
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/02
7
W
W
U