PHIEagles
1-4
20
TBD
FedExField
68°F
7 mph
13
WASCommanders
3-1
TBD
FedExField
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
13
0
0
20
Commanders
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.12
Passing Yards
230
245
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
17/37(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.18
Rushing Yards
192
42
Rush Attempts
38
14
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.85
-10.89
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-2.70
-2.84
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
60
75
Penalty EPA
-5.93
-10.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
-72.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U