PHIEagles
3-1
20
TBD
FedExField
69°F
13 mph
27
WASCommanders
3-2
TBD
FedExField
69°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
8
0
6
14
Commanders
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
493
Total Plays
48
67
Yards / Play
5.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
145
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.03
Rushing Yards
94
230
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.44
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-7.24
--
Penalties
13
9
Penalty Yards
114
75
Penalty EPA
-13.32
-4.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-68.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U