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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-1
20
TBD
FedExField
69°F
13 mph
27
WASCommanders
3-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
69°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
8
0
6
14
Commanders
7
14
3
3
27

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
239
493
Total Plays
48
67
Yards / Play
5.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
145
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.03
Rushing Yards
94
230
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.44
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-7.24
--
Penalties
13
9
Penalty Yards
114
75
Penalty EPA
-13.32
-4.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-58.3
Final Difference
-58.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
09/19
-2.0
34
09/25
7.7
91
10/09
0.4
53
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.1
74
12/20
12.4
99
12/26
7.3
92
01/03
4.1
79
01/10
1.1
58
09/12
1.8
63
09/18
2.3
67
09/25
0.8
55
10/02
0.0
49
10/09
1.4
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
13
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
6
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
30
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
09/19
15
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
U
10/09
-1
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-22
L
L
O
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
11
W
W
O
10/09
6
W
W
U