PHIEagles
3-2
27
TBD
FedExField
57°F
017
WASCommanders
2-4
TBD
FedExField
57°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
8
13
0
0
21
Commanders
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
308
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.16
Passing Yards
140
246
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.23
Rushing Yards
122
62
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+4.77
-14.41
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-21
-38
Sack EPA
-4.60
-13.23
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
66
60
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
Commanders+8.5
Expected Value
+17.7%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-154.5
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-1-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
1-5-4
O/U