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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-2
27
TBD
FedExField
57°F
0
17
WASCommanders
2-4
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
57°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
8
13
0
0
21
Commanders
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

PHI logo
-8.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
262
308
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.16
Passing Yards
140
246
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.23
Rushing Yards
122
62
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+4.77
-14.41
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-21
-38
Sack EPA
-4.60
-13.23
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
66
60
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-6.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.7%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-154.5
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
12/07
3.5
76
12/15
4.4
80
12/21
-0.6
48
12/28
4.8
83
01/04
1.8
63
01/11
0.9
58
01/18
7.5
93
09/13
1.6
60
10/11
7.4
90
10/18
-6.1
14
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
1.4
62
12/21
-1.7
39
12/28
4.2
78
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
2.7
67
09/27
4.6
79
10/04
-6.3
13
10/11
-3.7
26
10/18
-6.8
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
8
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-1-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
38
W
W
P
01/04
12
W
W
P
01/11
12
W
W
P
01/18
-7
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-26
L
L
O
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/11
19
W
W
O
10/18
-4
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
1-5-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-14
L
L
P
12/14
-7
L
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-3
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
P
O
09/20
2
W
L
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U