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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-3
59
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
28
WASCommanders
4-4
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
28
17
8
0
53
Commanders
0
14
7
7
28

Spread

PHI logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
592
375
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
8.8
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.55
+0.02
Passing Yards
332
270
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
11.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.88
-0.14
Rushing Yards
260
105
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
62%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.94
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-25
Sack EPA
-0.66
-2.56
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
41
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-2.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
11/26
2.9
71
12/03
2.7
69
12/10
-5.3
16
12/16
5.8
88
12/24
-7.2
8
12/31
-2.5
34
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
6.2
88
10/03
-3.0
29
11/07
5.4
84
D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Value
Ptile
01/03
-3.2
30
01/09
-3.7
26
09/12
-1.9
37
09/19
6.7
90
09/26
1.4
57
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25

EPA

EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
1
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
19
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
20
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-24
L
L
U
01/09
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
L
O
09/26
25
W
W
U
10/03
-5
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
O
10/17
14
W
W
O
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/07
2
W
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/03
-3
L
P
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-14
L
L
O
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O