PHIEagles
5-3
59
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
28
WASCommanders
4-4
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
28
17
8
0
53
Commanders
0
14
7
7
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
592
375
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
8.8
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.55
+0.02
Passing Yards
332
270
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
11.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.88
-0.14
Rushing Yards
260
105
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
62%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.94
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-25
Sack EPA
-0.66
-2.56
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
41
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-2.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U