PHIEagles
12-2
33
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph
36
WASCommanders
9-5
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
21
0
6
6
33
Commanders
7
7
0
22
36
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
370
Total Plays
71
65
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.08
Passing Yards
127
255
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.04
Rushing Yards
211
115
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
19%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-4.11
-21.17
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-3
Sack EPA
-5.82
+0.69
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
91
--
Penalty EPA
-4.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,659
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+30.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U