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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
9-5
29
TBD
FedExField
42°F
7 mph
18
WASCommanders
4-10
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
42°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
0
7
15
29
Commanders
3
7
0
8
18

Spread

PHI logo
-7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
387
222
Total Plays
67
52
Yards / Play
5.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.07
Passing Yards
178
130
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.35
Rushing Yards
209
92
Rush Attempts
35
27
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
-4.15
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-2.16
-2.68
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
61
44
Penalty EPA
-8.24
-9.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-190
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.7
Home QB Adjustment
-32.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
-1.6
38
10/09
1.1
59
10/19
4.8
82
10/26
1.9
64
11/10
1.1
58
11/16
-1.5
39
11/23
8.1
94
11/28
2.4
67
12/08
-9.0
3
12/14
5.7
87
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-32.9
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.1
52
12/04
-3.1
28
09/21
4.5
80
09/28
-2.8
31
10/27
-2.5
34
11/09
2.6
70
11/16
1.1
59
11/30
4.9
84
12/07
-7.9
5
12/14
-0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
7
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-4
L
L
U
10/09
-17
L
L
O
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-9
L
L
U
12/08
-3
L
L
U
12/14
31
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
17
W
W
U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
U
12/14
8
W
W
O