PHIEagles
8-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0DALCowboys
4-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U