PHIEagles
3-8
33
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
038
DALCowboys
5-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
10
7
3
27
Cowboys
0
10
7
15
32
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
417
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
6.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
240
294
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.81
Rushing Yards
183
123
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
7.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
60%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.35
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-1.27
-2.92
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-4.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+92.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-88.8
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-88.8
Value
Ptile
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
32
22
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
21
EPA
EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U