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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cowboys week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
13-1
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
40
DALCowboys
10-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
4
10
7
7
28
Cowboys
7
10
10
13
40

Spread

DAL logo
-4

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
442
419
Total Plays
69
72
Yards / Play
6.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
304
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.16
Rushing Yards
87
115
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.25
-9.91
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-8.01
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
10
36
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-1.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+82.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
-71.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-71.2
Value
Ptile
09/13
2.1
60
09/20
3.0
67
09/24
-3.3
22
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
12/20
-0.3
44
12/05
1.6
65
01/08
-2.7
33
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
01/16
-3.0
31
09/11
-8.0
6
10/23
-1.6
41
10/30
7.4
92
11/13
-0.0
52
11/20
7.9
93
11/24
1.5
63
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-0.2
51
12/18
-0.3
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
1
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
4
7
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
5
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
30
9
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
1
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/16
9
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/03
12
W
L
O
11/14
-11
L
L
O
11/20
1
W
L
U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/04
25
W
W
O
12/11
26
W
W
O
12/18
5
W
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
12
W
W
U
10/16
-9
L
L
O
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
20
W
W
O
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
37
W
W
U
11/24
8
W
L
O
12/04
35
W
W
O
12/11
4
W
L
O
12/18
-6
L
L
O