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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cowboys week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
11-4
0
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
24
DALCowboys
10-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
0
0
0
Cowboys
7
10
7
0
24

Spread

DAL logo
-3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
228
474
Total Plays
50
68
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.09
Passing Yards
191
295
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.28
Rushing Yards
37
179
Rush Attempts
10
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.69
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.42
-4.19
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-32
-16
Sack EPA
-7.31
-4.95
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
58
80
Penalty EPA
-4.77
-7.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
10/26
-2.8
32
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
-5.4
17
11/15
7.5
91
11/22
1.0
56
11/29
-0.2
48
12/06
0.1
49
12/13
2.6
66
12/20
2.8
68
12/27
4.1
76
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
8.8
95
11/01
4.2
77
11/08
-0.6
46
11/15
-2.3
36
11/22
-2.0
38
11/26
4.8
80
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
4.0
75
12/19
4.2
78
12/27
2.0
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
10
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
17
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
O
11/08
-4
L
L
U
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
4
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/06
27
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
3
W
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
16
W
W
O
11/01
21
W
W
O
11/08
4
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
11/22
1
W
L
U
11/26
17
W
W
U
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/27
17
W
W
U